Blackpool 1 - Watford 0

Here is e little analysis of one of my game today. The match between Blackpool - Watford.

Two teams who have started the league well but Blackpool have started best with seven points in three games while Watford have 5 points. I felt that this match will be very smooth, but because it felt so smooth and given that Blackpool had not lost in seven games against Watford so I considered +0.25 at Blackpool at odds of 2:07 on SBOBET gambling was worth.

Here you get an excerpt from Blackpool's official website.

"A beautifully taken goal by Thomas Ince ten minutes from time handed Blackpool their third successive 1-0 win at Bloomfield Road and maintained their unbeaten start to the campaign.

The winger passed a late fitness test before the match and was brought on midway through the second-half and made a huge impact to help see off Gianfranco Zola's Watford.

Tom Barkhuizen was handed his first senior league start for The Seasiders and was straight into the action early on, forcing a corner on the right, which Barry Ferguson whipped in to Ricardo Fuller who met it well but Manuel Almunia got down well to turn the header around the post.

Troy Deeney tested Matt Gilks for the first time after eight minutes with a stinging effort from 25 yards out, which the keeper did well to turn over. Shortly after Gilks was up to the task again; this time saving a penalty from Deeney after Neal Bishop brought down Almen Abdi.

The Watford striker had plenty of time to think about where he was going to put it while Abdi received treatment, but Gilks was there to palm the ball away down to his left-hand side.

The visitors enjoyed some good spells of possession throughout the half, but a combination of some fine defending and good goalkeeping kept them out.

Lewis McGugan sent a free-kick just over from 30 yards out before a moment of fortune for Blackpool saw Davide Faraoni head against the post with the follow-up being superbly saved by Gilks.

Moments later the woodwork came to Pool's rescue again as Diego Fabbrini curled a right-footed shot from just inside the penalty area against the inside of the post.

HALF-TIME: BLACKPOOL 0-0 WATFORD

Within three minutes of the restart Fuller was played in behind the Watford defence with a lovely lofted ball from Ferguson, but Almunia saved well down at his near post from the striker's volley.

Blackpool started the half much brighter with Barkhuizen the next to have an effort; somehow though his shot took a slight deflection and spun the wrong side of the post when it looked for all the world that he may have got his second in as many matches.

Isaiah Osbourne was the next Pool man to send an effort just the wrong side of the upright when he flung himself to meet Ferguson's right-wing corner with his head.

The Seasiders had The Hornets on the backfoot and thought they had broken the deadlock on the hour-mark but Nathan Delfouneso's finish was ruled out for offside after some nice interchange between Angel Martinez and Osbourne."

Source: http://www.blackpoolfc.co.uk/fixtures-results/match-report/index.aspx?MatchId=3630754

Bayern - Chelsea

Yesterday I looked at the super cup final between Bayern - Chelsea, WOW what a great game it was. The pace was very high and the passing game, defense game, offensive game, everything was fine. And my goodness what great goals made​​. Torres goal, not many in the world who manage and Ribery's canon is not so poorly done.
Unfortunately, I think the result was disappointing because I thought Chelsea were worthy of a win,
but I won on my bet +0.75 at Chelsea so I will not complain too much about it;)
It is unbelievable that Bayern only was between 1.65-1.70 to win the match. Perhaps they should have been between 1.9 at least, I think. This kind of match is 50/50 according to me, maybe a little advantage Bayern as they have a little better squad, but certainly not at odds of 1.65. Chelsea. with Mourinho as coach always does well in these kinds of games, and we all know it very well. So the odds of +0.75 on Chelsea at odds of 2:07 at the Pinnacle was a very good odds I think.

LESSON 2

Bankroll management, accounting and Unit School

Sports betting can be one of the most lucrative investment if you choose to treat it as an investment. The problem is that a large majority of all sportsbettare are lost souls who plays without a goal.

First and foremost, before you place your first bet, you should evaluate the situation and determine a plan of action.
It's a bit like building a house. If you start putting up walls, ceilings, floors and stairs, etc., without regard to the foundation the house is on, then one day you come home to a pile of rubble. The same applies to sports betting.
If you bet random amounts of money on various games without thinking about how you will pay if you lose or what you will do with the prize if you win, you are destined to lose your investment! Those of you who recognize you take with you, this tactic will not be successful in the long run. In order to play more safely, you should also remember not to chase losses, added is laid, learn from where things went wrong, what variables you have not included in your assessment (weather, injuries, proper tactics), and realize that even the safest bets may come unstuck sometimes. Do not get desperate and locate other games at once. Then it is important to keep in mind that even if you want to become a millionaire overnight so built a solid million of regular investments under one plan.

It's very tempting to invest heavily in a match, especially if you are in a winning schools while it is pretty boring to just invest a small amount. Working under their own terms is everything and one must always work within their bankroll, no matter what it is!
Experienced sportsbettare know that loss suites are inevitable. To accommodate this variance is required to follow some basic guidelines to assure bettor if earnings stability over a long period of time. Do yourself a favor and "stay in the clip." Do not miss the season with a trip to your money is already gone during the preseason.

If your bankroll (the total amount you have intended to games) is 10 000 and your medelbet are more than 300 kr you play too much. If you have 1 000 to play for and your medelbet is 30 SEK to play too much. If your bankroll is $ 500 and you play for more than 15 per game, you play too much!
The common thread in all this is that it is YOU TO CONTROL THE SINGLE biggest obstacle to LOSING GAME. To repeat - no matter how you pick out your games, or if you just choose to shrink from any you have the ability to eliminate the biggest reason for losing games. All you need to do is to practice safe bankroll management.

So how much do you add per game?

It depends, of course, on your bankroll (how much you are willing to invest and can lose over a full season), but there is a general rule that applies whether you're a 10 KR-per-game bettare or if one is a 1 000 SEK-per-game bettare:
Play around 2-4% of your bankroll as a means and never play more than 5% of your bankroll on a few matches with even or nearly even odds. There are no "safe games." Try to get into it - there's no such thing as a "safe game". Any bet can be lost. Loss Service can and will happen.
Even if you put 60% of the games overall, so it will be weeks you only put 40%. It is something that is completely secure.
Can you make money by making use of this strategy? Of course! It is actually necessary to make money.
Without this strategy, you will always lose for a long time no matter how good you are at picking games.
If you hit 54-58% (which is what you should expect), you will lose a lot of money (and perhaps also decimate your entire bankroll) if you bet more than 5% of your bankroll per game.

If you're winning and inside a good flow, your work automatically increase and you can win even more. How? Simple! You use the percentage of your remaining bankroll.
As your bankroll increases, your betstorlek increase. The same applies vice versa, if your bankroll has shrunk, your work to shrink. A nice side effect of this is that, by definition, can never lose the checkout.
It is mathematically impossible to lose entire bankroll if you always bet a small percentage of it.

Basics: Remember, betta 2-4% of your bankroll per game average. If you are not as sure a bet, reduce to 1% and you feel very confident in a game, increasing to 4%. For those rare and special games that you absolutely love, you go up a little further, but never risk more than 5% in some circumstances. 10=5%

A must like sports players to post their games, game companies do not retain any information about you forever, it will disappear over time. It is important that you actively updates and tracks your progress as a player. It becomes so much easier to find out the possible mistakes you have when you post their games. Remember that even if the going gets tough for a while with many losses, you have to not give up, keep posting and think long term. I know myself that it is not fun to update the day after a förlustdag but it's just getting used to, no player in the world is able to go, plus every day.

One thing in terms of profits, it's net profit in consideration of post, if you bet 200 SEK at odds of 2.15 then you have not won 430kr 230kr without net. It is this profit that is interesting. I usually think of the odds of -1 and then take it times odds. (2.15-1 = 1.15, SEK 200 * 1.15 = 230)

Measure of success in the sports betting world is best measured via ROI% (return on investment). It is quite simple to understand the principle, it is a figure that shows how much profit you've managed to get on your sales of sports betting. Tex. if you have a total traded 62 500kr and succeeded with a net profit of 11 200kr you have an ROI% to 117.9%. The calculation is simple, (Net income / sales) * 100 then plussar you by 100. The net loss takes you (Net loss / net sales) * 100 and then 100 results. Tex. you have a net loss of 4300kr and has translated 21 000kr, (4300/21 000) * 100 = 20.47. 100-20, 47 = 79. 53%.

I recommend using the spreadsheet available here on the website, it really saves time and it takes care of most of the calculations for you, but it is important to understand why and the meaning of the records.

Think of it as a long-term receipt if you make good valuations and analyzes but be sure to have a large number of games before you judge how well it went.

Bettingschool (Lesson 1)

They are a lot of beginners who do not really know what betting is all about. For those who do not know I will lay out three lessons about what betting is all about. I will lay out a lesson / day, so today we start with lesson 1.

LESSON 1

Introduction

So you wanna take your gaming seriously and stop donating your money to gaming companies? Since you've been looking for you here, I think so. You've come to the right.
In order to master something so needed skills and it is the first step to becoming a winning player. Learn as much as possible, no knowledge is unnecessary in this industry. Learn from others with more experience and actively participate in the forum.

First and foremost, you have to understand that playing sports is all about math. What does the odds of 1.90 you? For me, it means 52.6% and the goal is that it will mean that for you too. Odds are simply another way to write percent. There are American odds (-110), the British fractional odds (9/10) and the most sensible and intelligent way, decimal odds (1.90). Any way, you should know, but may also remember that all ways are really just different ways of expressing percent.

The challenge to make money on sports betting in the long run is a lot in that possess very basic knowledge of probability theory that we all people with at least grundskoleutbilldning know. Theoretically, it may be easily but to transmit in practice it can be difficult. To adhere to their rules and not bring emotion into their playing is fundamental for success, more on this in the lesson on managing bankroll.

Expected value, the odds and variance.

A very important part is to understand what is meant by the odds and why nothing else but the odds ever be played.

We play with the idea that it is possible to play at FC Barcelona as winners at home at 1.85 in odds against Real Madrid. Is this an over the odds?

To answer this you need to give Barcelona a win%, ie, how many times out of 100 games do you think Barcelona will win the El Clasico that will play out. It's up to you to clean statistically and using information form your sharp analysis of the situation. Form, injuries, past meetings, change of trainer, pressure etc..

After careful analysis, you assess that Barcelona should have 58% chance to win against Real Madrid, now you're so smart, so you know that the odds are just percentage so you can now calculate the odds applicable at 58%. (100 / =% odds) 100/58 = 1,724. Here we have an over the odds! We can now see clearly that we have an advantage, but how big is it? We round off to 2 decimal places and calculate it:

1.85 corresponds to 54.10% ((1/odds) * 100). 58% -54.10% = 03.09%.

It's up to you now if this advantage is sufficient for you to play or not. Remember that it takes practice and experience to be able to appreciate their advantage.

We now have an expected value (EV) is positive and it means that in the long run so it is beneficial to play Barcelona at this odds (1.85). For each 100kr we invest, we will serve 3.9kr ie +3.9%. This is, in theory, in practice you'll lose 100kr or you win 85kr but in the long run, the game was good.

It's very important to learn that you have to see it all as one big "gate". Or, "wearing down" in Swedish. You can only have long-term goals with their gambling if you take it seriously. Everyone has bad periods where you lose money but you have to stand firm and believe in their games.

You may have heard of variance? It is a measure of how bad it can still go even though playing on the odds. The same applies to the opposite, playing the unfavorable odds but still wins more games in a row. Lucky and unlucky still exists, it does not matter how good you are. Sometimes sitting everywhere, sometimes sits very little, but mostly it stays mostly. This is the goal, to win more than you lose. Assess no or yourself after just five games, 10spel or for that matter 20 games. Wait until you have at least hundred games before you start talking about being a winning or losing. There is a very good quote:

"Gambling is a marathon not a sprint"

MY BLOG

Is a guy who have years of experience with all types of gambling. I started to gamble when I was around 17 and started to play at different bookmakers pages. My favorite sport is of course the world's biggest sports football, which I also play myself in div 2 Sweden. I have relatively good control of the Swedish football and especially the top league (Allsvenskan) and 2nd league (Superettan). As I said, I've played / tried almost all the things that go into play, such as surebet, casino poker. Sure Bet I would not recommend to start with because it is very hard to find odds that are so different from each other and bookmakers even notice when playing surebet and thus can exclude you from the side. The right side that I know of that allows surebet is the pinnacle where they even go out on their website and say they allow it. After I tried most things I just had named so I'm stuck for two things. First is to gamble on bookmakers pages and others are betting exchange Betfair. In this blog I will only post bet that I play on bookmakers websites, not at the exchange. Those of you who do not know how to play at the exchange can be in touch with my e-mail.

Now the betting at bookmakers sites:

The sportsbook that I really prefer is obvious pinnacle. Very good site with highest average prices throughout the market according to me. What I also like about this bookmaker is that they allow high stakes and to welcome even winning player. What I mean by winning player is the most bookmakers where you win a lot, they can change the insert so that you can not play as much money as you want to play. This happens to me at bet365. It had gone very well for a while and I had gained quite a lot of money. When I would play a game, I could barely play at all, very little money, I could play at that game. On pinnacle matter how much they win they will not change your actions. 
If you begin a serious gamble so I recommend that you first think carefully about how much you can afford to lose, for you will never lose more than what you can afford to lose. It's a very important rule. We say that you can afford to lose 1,000 euros. Never play when more than 5% of your bankroll (1000), you would add a bit, then you should not play for more than 50 euros. It's a rule that I hold and will never break, I think even you also do. 

All my picks, I will analyze very carefully through everything from my own thoughts and also from information from various people I have contact with. Most of the picks that I post, I will write an analysis on, but even the picks that I do not write about one of analysis, I have it. You simply have to trust me that I've been eyeing for good information, even at these games.

Stakes:

1-3: low stakes, probably will not happen too often
4-6 medium stakes, the stakes that I will use most
7-10: high stakes, surebet;) if I have very good information, probably it will then be a league from Sweden that I have received good information from.
Im going to post between 50-70 picks in a month, 2-3 picks/day

That's all from me. If you have any questions, just contact me by e-mail megamoney99@gmail.com

Good luck and let us beat the bookies!